Modelling and visualization of threats' dynamics

Endorsed by

Limitations in the ability to model real-time ( phase) or pre-event ( phase) dynamics of various threats and visualization of obtained results in a form that can be used directly by the incident commander.

Potential Solutions
Following solutions could be addressing this gap.

To enhance operations, there is a for fast and accurate of the concerned territory at the pre-event and phase (for the incident-specific attributes that cannot be anticipated at the planning phase). Detailed forecasts and models (predictive modeling capabilities) to be produced in real time with incident-specific variables. The incident commander needs to understand both the current situation, and how it will evolve ( dynamic).

Time is a critical factor.

References in the literature: this is very specific and therefore not identified as such in the literature. Broader gaps about related issues such as the ability to identify cascading effects possibly impacting the response have been identified in several studies.

Rationale & related CM function(s)

Incident commanders need timely, detailed and reliable status information and forecasts on the spread of the hazards and their impact.
It is necessary to develop adequate hazards' modelling and simulation capacity.
During response, near real time feed of actual data is needed to allow for proper assessment of threats and reliable forecasts.
eu Portfolio of Solutions web site has been initially developed in the scope of DRIVER+ project. Today, the service is managed by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH., for the benefit of the European Management. PoS is endorsed and supported by the Disaster Competence Network Austria (DCNA) as well as by the STAMINA and TeamAware H2020 projects.