In the Real Time Flood viewer risk information is presented for the actual situation (using measurements) and upcoming day’s using forecasts. Information is clustered into:
- Water levels: Measured and forecasted water levels at different locations, and the translation of these water levels to the hydraulic load (including wind and waves) to a levee or dam at a certain location.
- Levees: A levee can be divided in different sections based on common characteristics. For each levee section the characteristics are described that determine the strength of the levee.
- Zones: the conditional risk in an area is quantified using flood scenarios and the probability of failure. An area can be divided in different zones for example based on zip code. The conditional risk is quantified in a conditional risk of economic damage, conditional risk of people at risk and conditional fatalities and local probability of exposure to a flood. In Figure 4 we show an example of the conditional risk per zip code.
- Measures: For each levee or dam also a library of different fragility curves, which describe the effectiveness of measures, can be prepared in advance. For example the height of the levee can be corrected, as the states of the grass revetment etc.
- Human assessment (expert judgment): The probability of failure, as the consequences of flooding, can be corrected for biases by human assessments. Therefore measurements can be used, field inspections as well as remote sensing and data science techniques.
All available information has been gathered in a Real Time Flood Risk Assessment viewer, to be used to determine the chances of dike failure and connected risks (impact). For purposes of learning, validation and asset management also synthetic ‘what if’ events (water levels) can be defined. These synthetic events can describe potential or historic flood events.
The Real Time Flood Risk Assessment viewer is useful to facilitate the discussion on possible measures. It helps the experts to explicit their opinion and it provides insight in a complex system with interdependencies. Knowledge could be available in their heads and in this way, while presenting and discussing the options with the help of the map, it is also visible for the other experts in the expert team how this knowledge could benefit in the situation.
Supported Use Cases
Flood Risk Expert judgment Budapest (Hungary)
Crisis Management Improvements Waterboard Rijn and IJssel (NL)
Levee safety assessment Waterboard Hollands Noorderkwartier (NL)
Dike strength: Functional and technical design (NL)
DRIVER+ project has received funding from the European Union's 7th Framework Programme for Research,